By- Radhika Shaw
On August 08, 2024 the interim government of Bangladesh was formed led by Muhammad Yunus, a microfinance pioneer consisting of its advisory team of almost 15 members (Bureau, 2024). The question arises here why did Bangladesh needed an interim government despite having national election earlier this year? Although the reason seems answerable it has a deep-rooted discontent among the people especially the youth.
The protest that started as a peaceful student protest against the unjust quota system in Bangladesh soon took a turn towards the political unrest, instability as well as the ousting of the elected Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 05 leading the country into military rule under the leadership of Waker-uz-Zaman, the Chief of the Army Staff. Before moving forward, we need to look into the quota system of Bangladesh which had such a devastating effect today. Although the constitution does not explicitly impose quotas, the government has justified their implementation based on the following principles: Affirmative Action: The quota system has been viewed as a type of affirmative action that addresses historical imbalances and provides opportunity for marginalized groups.
Social Justice: Some claim that the system promotes social justice by providing preference to persons who have historically been underrepresented in government professions. We can find relevance of quota system with these articles in Bangladesh constitution Article 29 Equality of Opportunity: All citizens are guaranteed equal opportunity in public employment without discrimination based on religion, race, caste, gender, or place of birth.
Directive Principles of State Policy: Describes the state’s commitment to uplifting disadvantaged people. While not legally binding, these ideas have affected governmental decisions, especially the quota system (Constitution of Bangladesh, 1971). The most controversial quota today is the veteran quota i.e., reserving 30 percent of the government jobs for the children and grandchildren on the veteran of 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War (2024). Reservation for woman which is 10 percent, another 10 percent for citizens from underdeveloped districts, five percent for indigenous communities and lastly, one percent for physically challenged (Azad, 2018) (Macdonald, 2024, p. 02) This total of 56 percent reservation is the focal point of the protest and such unrest.
While resentment with the quota system dates back to its origins, organized protests began to gather traction in the 1990s. These initial demonstrations were irregular and frequently met with limited result. However, they emphasized the growing dissatisfaction among students and job seekers who believed the system was impeding merit-based selection and generating a new type of injustice.
The year 2018 was a watershed point in the history of quota reform. A tremendous wave of protests occurred across Bangladesh, largely driven by students from public universities. The demonstrators called for a full revamping of the quota system, claiming that the 56% reserved quota unfairly discriminated against the majority of applicants.
These protests focused on the 30% quota allotted for the children and grandchildren of liberation fighters. While the ruling Awami League, which had been in power for over a decade, positioned itself as the defender of the Liberation War spirit, demonstrators contended that the quota had become politicized and was no longer serving its intended purpose. The protest was successful in compelling the government to completely removing the quota system which came as a relief to the students and the protesters. The protest was successful and stability was achieved after that.
Nevertheless, the stability did not last long. It was June 2024 which brought back the students on the streets fighting for the same cause all over again lead by High Court of Bangladesh decision in June 2024.
Following the written petition by a group of war veterans’ relatives, the Bangladesh High Court issued a ruling on June 5, 2024, finding the government’s 2018 circular unlawful and reinstating the 30% quota. The court argued that the quota was a reasonable way to acknowledge the sacrifices of freedom fighters and their families (Corea & Erum, 2024).
Aftermath the High Court verdict, was the student protest that starts at University of Dhaka which acted as a domino effect over other universities in the country and before anyone could know the second protest within a decade became a nationwide protest against the quota system and the Awami League government. The government did not take any step as the decision was taken by judiciary and asked the protesters to wait till the appeal verdict on August 07, 2024. However, the situation got out of hand as the protesters demanded removal of Hasina Sheikh and dismissal of Awami League from the government.
The situation worsened when Hasina made a remark during an interview on July 14. She said, “Why do they [the protesters] have so much resentment towards the freedom fighters? If the grandchildren of the freedom fighters don’t get quota benefits, should the grandchildren of Razakars[1] get the benefit?” (Rahman, 2024). Since the Razakar remark was made by Hasina the protesters started a new slogan which translates to “Who am I? Who are You? Razakar, Razakar. Who said that? Who said that? Autocrat. Autocrat” (Rahman, 2024). In spite of nationwide protest, no peace dialogue was held between the Government and the protesters, also the PM’s condemnation of the protest made situation to turn for the worse. The involvement of the state police lead to hundreds injured and six protesters ended up being dead on July 16 (Rahman, 2024). Thus, started the demand of resignation of the PM. With the increase in violence and death of the protestors led nationwide shutdown and eventually on August 05 compelled the PM of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina resign from her position and flee the country and run to neighbouring India for refugee.
Aftermath of Sheikh Hasina’s resignation gave path to increased violence against Hindus in Bangladesh. With Muhammad Yunus taking up the responsibilities as the advisory to the government Indian PM Narendra Modi tweeted “My best wishes to Professor Muhammad Yunus on the assumption of his new responsibilities. We hope for an early return to normalcy, ensuring the safety and protection of Hindus and all other minority communities. India remains committed to working with Bangladesh to fulfill the shared aspirations of both our peoples for peace, security and development.” (Modi, 2024).
The newly established interim government promised to look into religious violence against Hindus which involve dismantling religious places, houses and shops of the Hindu community (minority in Bangladesh). The interim government in its official statement mentioned “The attacks on religious minorities in some places have been noted with grave concern,” (2024).
The minority Hindus came to the streets to protest against the atrocities going on. Dhaka and Chittagong have been witnessing large number of Hindus coming on streets to protect people of their community. Since the resignation of former PM Sheikh Hasina two senior Hindu leaders affiliated with the Awami League have been killed due to violence against the minority. Atrocities against Hindus prompts protest all over the world. Such violence forcing the thousands of Hindus to flee to neighbouring countries especially India.
Looking into the recent developments which starts from the dissatisfaction on High Court’s verdict on quota system in June 2024 to dramatic fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government all is owed to the student protest. Nevertheless, the point of conjecture here is that, was this just a student protest or much more sinister than that. It becomes difficult to digest the fact that just a student protest without and local of foreign authority could become such a disaster for a country.
Dissecting the events in past couple of months after the conclusion of general election in Bangladesh and forming the government by Awami League with Sheikh Hasina as the PM on January 05, 2024 Hasina gave a statement “If I allowed a certain country to build an air base in Bangladesh, then I would have had no problem,” (Times, 2024). However, making the statement Hasina did not take any country name yet mentioned that it was from a white man. It is believed that the statement was indirectly pointed at US given Hasina’s troubled relations with United States as well as US being vocal about election in Bangladesh and doubts of it being free and fair.
On August 13, Principal Deputy Spokesperson of the US Department of State, Vedant Patel, she said “That’s laughable. Any implication that the United States was involved in Sheikh Hasina’s resignation is absolutely false,” (US strongly rejects allegations of its involvement in former Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina’s resignation, 2024).
Any conclusion on US involvement in the same is open for speculations, however, US statement makes it clear that US is not up to take and responsibilities yet, given its track history on removal of governments, covert or overt power toppling is not new and does not very well go with US statement.
With possible US involvement and such an unrest in neighbouring country, India has a huge stake in this. With India having friendly relations with Bangladesh and backing Sheikh Hasina led Awami League, the question arises how did a country with strong Intelligence agencies such as RAW failed to anticipate such a situation. The protest was not new it went on for months which gave ample time for the Indian government to analyse the situation in their neighbouring country. These is a classic example of intelligence failure. Something went wrong here, either in intelligence gathering which clearly indicates that India’s HUMINT or SIGNT is low in Bangladesh, another reason could be analysis part where the intelligence was present however, analysing is where it went wrong. Whatever might be the cause Indian Intelligence Agency failed which hardly gives hopes to the people.
Owing to such a disastrous intelligence failure leaves India in middle of a crisis which would have several implications on India. As of now there is high alert on India-Bangladesh border. India has been suffering from insurgent issue from both east borders with Bangladesh as well as western borders with Pakistan however, under the rule of Sheikh Hasina the insurgent issue was tackled to a great extend on eastern front. With resignation of Hasina, India is left with the possible insurgent issue again with challenges India’s national security on eastern front again. Destabilization in neighbouring Bangladesh would lead to increase in cross border terrorism as well as support to separatist groups in northeastern states of India. Separatist groups in northeastern India such as ULFA[2], NSCN[3] would get safe haven, logistic support as well as potential political support in unstable and chaotic Bangladesh. Another impact could be the golden triangle being in Southeast Asia situation in Bangladesh could increase smuggling, human trafficking as well as difficulty in border management. Border security would be paramount in such situation as influx of refugee would definitely challenge that. Given the violence against the minority in Bangladesh, there is thousands of Hindus migrating to neighbouring countries especially India for refuge.
Economic issues would be one of the most problematic spheres due to instability in Bangladesh. Political or economic instability in Bangladesh may affect trade and investment flows between the two nations. India is Bangladesh’s primary commercial partner, and any disruption would have severe impact on Indian exports and imports. Bangladesh is a significant textile and garment exporter. A crisis might cause supply chain difficulties for Indian sectors that depend on Bangladeshi products. Economic instability in Bangladesh may cause swings in the Bangladeshi Taka, impacting commerce and investment.
Unstable Bangladesh might become a battle ground for major powers with their interest in Bangladesh and would possibly turn the entire situation just like in Syria where, involvement of major powers brought the country on its knee and facilitated in its ruin, having such a situation in its neighbouring country would be of dire implications on India, posing challenges to India’s strategic role in the region as a regional power.
The recent turmoil in Bangladesh, sparked by protests against the quota system and ensuing bloodshed, has far-reaching repercussions for India. The crisis, which is characterized by instability, probable sectarian strife, and a power vacuum, presents substantial security, economic, and diplomatic concerns. India’s intelligence community is being scrutinized for its apparent failure to anticipate the catastrophe. While the temporary government led by Professor Muhammad Yunus offers promise for stability, the future is riddled with uncertainty. India must approach this difficult situation with caution and strategic insight, weighing its interests against the need for regional stability.
The crisis highlights the two nations’ interconnection and the significance of strong diplomatic engagement. It also emphasizes the need for India to improve its border control, counter-insurgency capabilities, and humanitarian response structures. As the situation develops, India’s capacity to respond successfully will be critical in determining the future of its relationship with Bangladesh.
Author
Ms. Radhika Shaw
